As the leaves begin to turn and the air grows crisp, Australians are bracing for more than just the change of seasons. Health experts are sounding the alarm over the potential for a severe flu season, and the reasons behind their concern are multifaceted.
The warning signs are clear: the Northern Hemisphere has experienced a ‘dramatic increase’ in influenza cases, and this uptick is often a harbinger of what’s to come down under. The National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System has already reported 1,055 confirmed influenza cases in Australia in the first week of 2025, and history tells us that this is just the beginning.
Influenza thrives in the winter months. The virus survives longer outside the body in colder temperatures, and our social habits—gathering in enclosed spaces to escape the chill—create the perfect storm for the flu to spread. After a period of reprieve during the COVID-19 pandemic, when international borders were closed and infections plummeted, Australia has seen a resurgence of the flu. The numbers are stark: from just 750 recorded infections in 2021 and 21,343 in 2020, we leapt to 364,000 confirmed cases in 2024, surpassing the previous high set in 2019.
But why the sudden increase? The reopening of Australia’s borders certainly played a role, but there’s another, more insidious factor at play: declining vaccination rates. Coverage for those over 65 has slipped, and the drop is even more pronounced among younger demographics. From 2020 to 2024, vaccination rates fell across all age groups, with the largest age group—15 to 50-year-olds—seeing a 3 percentage point decrease to 20.4 per cent.
Experts like Andrew Bartlett from the University of Sydney and Matthew Mason from the University of the Sunshine Coast point to ‘vaccine fatigue’ and the impact of misinformation as significant contributors to this decline. The relentless annual reminders to get vaccinated, coupled with the spread of false information, particularly around COVID-19 vaccines, have fostered a growing distrust of vaccinations in Australia.
The consequences of this could be dire. Not only do colder temperatures and reduced sunlight in winter exacerbate the spread of the flu, but the waning effectiveness of the previous year’s vaccine leaves even the vaccinated more vulnerable. The situation abroad, particularly in the United States where influenza rates are soaring, offers a grim preview of what Australia might face.
In response to the threat, the influenza vaccine remains free for at-risk Australians, including young children, pregnant women, and the elderly. However, for the general population, the cost of a flu jab at pharmacies hovers around $25. Queensland has taken proactive measures by funding a free influenza vaccine program for all residents aged 6 months and over in 2025, a move that Mason suggests could be a model for encouraging higher vaccination rates nationwide.
The logic is clear: by vaccinating those who are most active in the community—workers, schoolchildren, and frequent visitors to public spaces—we can significantly reduce the risk of widespread illness. It’s a community health strategy that not only protects the individual but also shields the most vulnerable among us from the ripple effects of a severe flu season.
Have you had your flu jab this season? What are your thoughts on the potential for a severe flu season? Feel free to share your experiences and insights in the comments below – let’s discuss how we can stay prepared together.
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