Christmas is done and 2023 is almost upon us. What can we expect? Will COVID still dominate the news? Will interest rates finally start heading in the right direction for those with a mortgage? Here are six 2023 trend tips, according to those most likely to know.
Interest rates will keep rising – at least in the first half of the year
Predicting which way interest rates will go is fraught, to say the least. Just ask Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe, who has come under fire from several quarters this year, after he forecast rates would not rise in 2022. They have – eight times.
To be fair to Dr Lowe, he wasn’t the only one to get it wrong. Few analysts saw the way things would pan out financially in 2022. In his December statement, Dr Lowe said: “The board expects to increase interest rates further over the period ahead, but it is not on a pre-set course.”
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While that statement was non-committal in terms of a timeframe, the ‘Big 4’ banks have been slightly more forthcoming. The Commonwealth Bank is the most optimistic of the four, predicting rates will start falling in late 2023. Westpac and the NAB believe it’s more likely to be early 2024 before they turn, while ANZ’s experts are more pessimistic, believing rates won’t start dropping until late 2024.
Tourism will fight back
For many, international travel has been little more than a pipe dream since COVID reared its ugly head early in 2020. Now, nearly three years on, tourism has begun to fight back, and the forecast is for that fightback to ramp up further in 2023.
Online magazine Economist says several years of pent-up travel demand has led to what it calls ‘revenge tourism’. It says international tourism arrivals, which rose by 60 per cent this year, will rise by a further 30 per cent in 2023, to 1.6 billion – almost back to pre-pandemic levels.
La Niña may finally run out of steam
Of course international travel isn’t for everyone. For a lot of Aussies in the southern states, a trip ‘up north’ is a good enough holiday. But if COVID hasn’t prevented such a trip for many in the past year or two, there’s a fair chance flooding has. Thanks to the climate phenomenon known as La Niña, which can occur every few years, some towns and cities have been inundated like never before.
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Without getting too deeply into the science behind La Niña, its presence usually means above average rainfall across the eastern seaboard. The current La Niña pattern is in its third year, which is highly unusual, and has certainly been a contributing factor to the devastating floods in Queensland, NSW and Victoria.
The good news is, Bureau of Meteorology models suggest a return to neutral conditions in January or February 2023, signalling the end of this La Niña episode and hopefully a return to more moderate rainfall levels.
The switch to renewables will gather pace
As climate change continues to dominate the discourse around the world, the energy shortage – exacerbated by the war in Ukraine – has seen some countries turn back to fossil fuels to shore up supplies.
While that’s not great news for the planet, in the medium term the war will almost certainly accelerate the switch to renewables as a safer alternative to hydrocarbons supplied by autocrats. As well as wind and solar, nuclear and hydrogen will also likely be given a boost.
In short, the switch to renewable energy will continue to gather steam.
COVID will continue to impact our lives
While we have likely seen the last of lockdowns on a 2020 scale, COVID will remain very much a part of our lives in 2023. The way it’s being managed will continue to evolve, though. According to the Royal Australian College of General Practitioners (RACGP), 2023 will see a number of changes.
This will include the phasing out of PCR testing for surveillance purposes, reduced access to the National Medical Stockpile (NMS), and the winding down of GP-led respiratory clinics from permanent fixtures to ‘activated as required’.
Chief Medical Officer Professor Paul Kelly forecasts that Australia will continue to experience frequent waves “for at least the next two years”, but that these may be milder and could place less pressure on the healthcare system.
Twitter will teeter, other social media platforms will rise
If you’re not a big user of social media this is one trend you won’t be fussed about, but you’re likely to have at least heard the news that billionaire Elon Musk bought one of the world’s largest social media platforms – Twitter.
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It’s fair to say that the takeover hasn’t been a smooth one. Mr Musk has reinstated many previously banned users, including former US President Donald Trump, ostensibly in the name of free speech, and sacked a swathe of employees.
Not everyone is happy with Elon’s efforts, and many Twitter users have already fled to alternative social media platforms such as Mastodon. One forecast suggests as many as 30 million users will abandon Twitter over the next two years, while Mashable’s culture reporter Tim Marcin believes the platform will “like the social media sites of yore, die a slow, agonising death”.
So there’s a sampling of experts’ outlooks for 2023. Twelve months hence, will we look back and marvel at how they got it right, or will we shake our heads at the passing of another crazy year?
Only time will tell.
What are you looking forward to in 2023? Which of these 2023 trend tips to you see coming true? Do you have any predictions of your own to make for the year ahead? Why not share your thoughts in the comments section below?
