Any thoughts that Pauline Hanson’s return as a political force might be short-lived have been dispelled by a recent report from The Australia Institute (TAI).
The analysis from TAI shows Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party is on track to retain federal seats in the Senate until at least 2025 and the prospect for the party securing the balance of power on a long-term basis should be taken seriously.
The research also contradicts the popularly held belief that the party failed badly in the recent West Australian state election, suggesting that it doubled its support in the state in just seven months.
The report shows One Nation’s slice of the first preference vote in WA was actually higher than the 4.86 per cent reported, as the party only contested 35 out of the 59 lower house seats.
Across the seats it contested, One Nation claimed 8.47 per cent of the first preference votes.
In 10 of those seats, it actually claimed 10 per cent of the vote.
The report goes on to claim that if these election results could be used as any indication, One Nation would have no problem retaining its WA Senate seat at the next election and could claim as many as seven Senate seats between 2019 and 2025.
One Nation’s support at the WA election was close but not yet equal to the level it enjoyed in 1998, although those figures are somewhat inflated when you take into account the growth in size of the WA state electorate over the last 20 years.
The next electoral test for One Nation will be in Queensland, the party’s strongest support base, where it won’t be able to draw on any proportional representation to win seats, but must break into a parliament where all members are elected under the full preferential voting system.
What do you think? How does the prospect of One Nation being a long-term force in Australia sit with you? Is this good or bad news?
Read the full Australia Institute report.
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