With Australia’s median property value set to hit a new peak by the end of 2023, what does that mean for where you live?
Since prices bottomed out in January, national values have increased faster than the rate of inflation.
CoreLogic research director Tim Lawless said while home values were still 1.3 per cent below the record reached in April last year, a national record could be reached by the end of November. He noted:
- Dwelling values have already reached new record highs in Perth and Adelaide.
- Brisbane looks set to reach a new record high in October, with home values currently only 0.6 per cent below their previous peak.
- Hobart and Canberra have the furthest to go before staging a nominal recovery.
Here’s how Australian house and unit prices are looking in each capital city for September.
Adelaide
Monthly change: 1.7 per cent increase
Adelaide median house value: $742,909
Median unit value: $464,414
The September quarter saw Adelaide record the highest capital gain at 4.3 per cent, pipping Brisbane and Perth.
Adelaide house prices are now up 6.3 per cent from their trough in March this year.
Brisbane
Monthly change: 1.3 per cent increase
Brisbane median house value: $848,680
Median unit value: $539,169
According to Mr Lawless, Brisbane looks set to reach a record high in October, with home values currently only 0.6 per cent below their previous peak.
Homes in most of the Sunshine State are now more expensive than they were 12 months ago — with the exception of the Sunshine Coast and neighbouring Noosa.
Canberra
Monthly change: 0.2 per cent increase
Canberra median house value: $956,600
Median unit value: $591,952
Darwin
Monthly change: 0.1 per cent increase
Darwin median house value: $579,142
Median unit value: $382,116
Hobart
Monthly change: 0.6 per cent decrease
Hobart median house value: $702,377
Median unit value: $520,460
Looking at annual figures, Hobart dwellings have recorded a 7 per cent decline.
Mr Lawless believes Hobart has a long way to go before staging a nominal recovery.
Melbourne
Monthly change: 0.4 per cent increase
Melbourne median house value: $933,281
Median unit value: $612,585
Since Melbourne property prices bottomed out in January 2023, they have risen 4.3 per cent.
Melbourne was one of three capital cities to record an above-average number of homes on the market.
Perth
Monthly change: 1.3 per cent increase
Perth median house value: $646,777
Median unit value: $437,883
Perth was one of three capital cities to record strong September quarter figures, with house values up 3.6 per cent.
Total advertised supply in Perth is 43.8 per cent below the previous five-year average for this time of the year.
Sydney
Monthly change: 1 per cent increase
Sydney median house value: $1,381,045
Median unit value: $828,919
Sydney home values are up 10.6 per cent since bottoming out in January 2023.
The median house value in Sydney rose 1 per cent and is now just short of $1.4 million, the peak it reached in February last year. The median value of a unit in Sydney, at $829,000, is now within a few thousand dollars of its previous record.
Are property prices expected to keep rising?
Looking ahead, interest rates are near their peak, and population growth is rebounding strongly.
Together with low levels of supply, PRD chief economist Diaswati Mardiasmo believes property prices will increase further.
“Dwelling supply, especially for houses, has dwindled significantly,” Dr Mardiasmo said.
“The number of loans issued for the construction or purchase of new homes are at their lowest since the GFC in 2008. This means that the supply of new houses is very little, and unless people are happy to switch from buying a house to an apartment, the competition for houses will continue to increase, and thus their prices.
“We also have plenty of international investors coming back to the market. They have seen how resilient our property prices were throughout COVID and the 12 cash rate hikes.”
RBA leaves rates on hold for fourth-straight month
The Reserve Bank has left the cash rate unchanged at 4.1 per cent for the fourth month in a row at Michele Bullock’s first meeting as governor, but warns another rate hike may be needed as uncertainty grows around oil prices.
Dr Mardiasmo also said the RBA’s decision to extend its rate pause would add to buyer confidence.
“People are feeling more confident with their financial situation as stable rates means there is less turbulence in monthly mortgage repayments, which allows them to plan their household budgets with more certainty,” she said.
“This often leads to more people entering the market. And as we know, when demand is high and supply is low, home prices often rise.”
While house prices will most likely accelerate, she believes the immediate rocket-like increase we saw during the pandemic will not eventuate.
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