Regardless of where you fall on the ideological spectrum, the new regime in the White House will have some real-world consequences, even for travel.
Donald Trump has made many policy decisions very clear, so it should be no surprise that travel will not be exempt from change. So what can we expect?
Infrastructure
While nothing is set in concrete, there are some signs things will change.
For internal travel, both sides of the divide have been dragging the chain on infrastructure, so roads and rail have suffered in the past few decades.
In 2021, the bipartisan Infrastructure and Investment and Jobs Act authorised $1.2 trillion for investment in roads, bridges, rail infrastructure and airport improvements over the following 10 years. However, while the program has a full head of steam and has already delivered a great deal of progress, you can expect this to be rolled back as the costs continue to escalate.
Demand
Pundits are expecting a sharp decline in demand for travel to the US due to the uncertainty about the political situation.
According to Business Travel News, travel boomed after Trump departed the office. Hotels and airlines turned in record-setting earnings reports, and profitability was high after driving efficiencies during the pandemic.
However, that may be about to reverse as many people will be reluctant to travel to the country due to perceived unstability.
The hospitality industry may also have trouble filling positions due to its high reliance on immigrant labour.
Trump has made it very clear he intends to be very aggressive on immigration, and with the industry already struggling to fill low-paid and low-appeal hospitality positions, it could face issues if its largest employee base is no longer available.
There are also fears Trump will reintroduce some favourite policies. In his first term as president, he introduced several restrictive travel laws that the Global Business Travel Association said cost the industry more than $1.3 billion in travel-related revenue in the first year alone.
In 2017, the Trump administration restricted entry for citizens from about two dozen countries, which he may well reintroduce.
Business
It’s no secret Trump likes supporting business and does not like the environment, so expect a roll back of ‘costly’ environmental developments in the aviation industry such as sustainable fuel. The only thing protecting this trend is that aviation is a global industry and as such there may not be much choice in the matter.
The Biden administration also recently enacted a raft of rules enforcing a timely manner of repayment for delayed or cancelled flights. These could be under threat, which may bring relief to our main international airline, Qantas, now well known for its failure in that department.
Trump has also promised to reduce business tax, which could potentially improve the affordability of business travel.
Travel news site Skift says on the flip side for business, Trump has also campaigned on tariffs, which could set off a trade war, especially with China. And as our wine and seafood industry knows too well, it’s one country with which you don’t not want to engage in a trade war. Not even a little bit.
Would you feel comfortable travelling to the US in the next 12 months? Why not share your opinion in the comments section below?
Also read: What a second Trump presidency might mean for Australia
